Davids and Goliaths

Davids and Goliaths

Under Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which the U.S. formally ratified in 1970, the nuclear-weapon States that are parties to the Treaty (U.S., Russia, China, U.K. and France) obligated themselves "to pursue negotiations in good faith on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control."  The non-nuclear-weapon States might possibly be excused for observing that these good-faith negotiations seem to be proceeding rather slowly.

Under Article X of the Treaty, every State-party "shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country. It shall give notice of such withdrawal to all other Parties to the Treaty and to the United Nations Security Council three months in advance."

Now, from the point of view of Germany (or Poland or Turkey or any other non-nuclear-weapon State in NATO) mightn't the confluence of (a.) the succession to the U.S. Presidency of a doubter and disparager of NATO; and (b.) the simultaneous declarations of said doubter and the President of Russia of their intentions to enhance their nuclear arsenals, rather than indulge in any disarmament negotiations (in good faith or otherwise) be deemed an "extraordinary event"?

Once the three months had passed, how long would it take Germany to have its own nuclear arsenal?  Wouldn't the governments of Germany, Poland and Turkey be well advised to give this course of action serious consideration?  Otherwise they depend upon Putin to refrain from crushing them by the use or threatened use of his nukes, and upon Trump to deter Putin with his nukes.  And even if both of these worthies might safely be relied upon, they would still be left inhabiting a world made ever more crowded with nuclear weapons over which they have no control.

The NNPT, incidentally, forms the vital nexus of the whole negotiation between nuclear-weapon States (Russia, China, U.S., U.K., France*) on the one hand and Iran (a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the NNPT) on the other, a fact practically never noted in the American media.
* Non-nuclear Germany was also a participant - nuclear vs. non-nuclear status being the reason for the designation of these as the "five plus one" powers.