Note: This is essentially the comment I posted elsewhere on February 5. Within a week the Trump Administration had rebuffed Britain's trade-agreement overtures, basically telling the UK it would have to go to the end of the line and await the US' conclusion of trade deals with China, the EU and others. So much for the Brexiteers' promise that a trade agreement with the US would be made quickly once the UK's formal withdrawal from the EU had taken place.
In a speech
given in the "Painted Hall" of the Old Royal Naval College at
Greenwich on February 3, recently appointed British P.M. Boris Johnson
proclaimed himself the apostle of free trade. Present through the magic of
(almost-) live streaming, I noted some passages which called for comment.
"And since [free-trade
theories] were born here in this country, it has been free trade that has done
more than any other single economic idea to raise billions out of poverty and
incredibly fast. ...
"And yet my friends, I am
here to warn you today that this beneficial magic is fading.
"Free trade is being choked
and that is no fault of the people, that’s no fault of individual consumers, I
am afraid it is the politicians who are failing to lead.
"The mercantilists are
everywhere, the protectionists are gaining ground from Brussels to China to
Washington. Tariffs are being waved around like cudgels even in debates on
foreign policy, where frankly they have no place."
Careful, Boris. Donald Trump
doesn't take kindly to criticism of any kind.
"We will not accept any
diminution in food, hygiene or animal welfare standards [that the UK applies to
all imports]." The Prime Minister apparently has not yet recognized that
this is exactly what the Trump Administration will demand before it will make a
trade deal with Britain. Has he never heard of "chlorinated chicken,"
or does he just prefer his poultry that way?
Johnson referred to climate
change and the need to reduce CO2
emissions as "the great environmental issue of our time, perhaps the
greatest issue facing humanity." But the Trump Administration has banned
even the use of the term "climate change" by federal employees at all
levels, and Trump denounces any link between CO2 levels and climatic conditions
as a "hoax", perpetrated specifically to impoverish the U.S.
This speech would get Boris
tossed out of Trump's Republican Party anywhere in America (if Trump and his
minions had the power to expel anyone from the party). It will be fascinating
to see how Johnson and Trump get along as the months pass.
My prediction: As 2021 approaches
and it becomes clear that the EU will stick by its rules and Brexit
(effective, not just nominal) without any deal agreed between Britain and the EU looms, Boris'
government will truckle under 100% and accept whatever deal Trump deigns to
offer. It will be far from the simple mutual adoption of free trade Johnson seems to dream about.
