Davids and Goliaths
Under Article VI of the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty which the U.S. formally ratified in 1970, the
nuclear-weapon States that are parties to the Treaty (U.S., Russia, China, U.K.
and France) obligated themselves "to pursue negotiations in good faith on
a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective
international control." The
non-nuclear-weapon States might possibly be excused for observing that these
good-faith negotiations seem to be proceeding rather slowly.
Under Article X of the Treaty, every
State-party "shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right
to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to
the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of
its country. It shall give notice of such withdrawal to all other Parties to
the Treaty and to the United Nations Security Council three months in
advance."
Now, from the point of view of Germany (or
Poland or Turkey or any other non-nuclear-weapon State in NATO) mightn't the
confluence of (a.) the succession to the U.S. Presidency of a doubter and
disparager of NATO; and (b.) the simultaneous declarations of said doubter and
the President of Russia of their intentions to enhance their nuclear arsenals,
rather than indulge in any disarmament negotiations (in good faith or
otherwise) be deemed an "extraordinary event"?
Once the three months had passed, how long
would it take Germany to have its own nuclear arsenal? Wouldn't the governments of Germany, Poland
and Turkey be well advised to give this course of action serious consideration? Otherwise they depend upon Putin to refrain
from crushing them by the use or threatened use of his nukes, and upon Trump to
deter Putin with his nukes. And even if
both of these worthies might safely be relied upon, they would still be left
inhabiting a world made ever more crowded with nuclear weapons over which they have no control.
The NNPT, incidentally, forms the vital
nexus of the whole negotiation between nuclear-weapon States (Russia, China,
U.S., U.K., France*) on the one hand and Iran (a non-nuclear-weapon State party
to the NNPT) on the other, a fact practically never noted in the American
media.
* Non-nuclear Germany was also a participant - nuclear vs. non-nuclear status being the reason for the designation of these as the "five plus one" powers.
* Non-nuclear Germany was also a participant - nuclear vs. non-nuclear status being the reason for the designation of these as the "five plus one" powers.
